Essence of the Claim
The propaganda formula "if protests are not suppressed — there will be a Maidan" is not an analysis or warning, but intimidation. It reverses cause and effect: mass protests are portrayed as the source of chaos, while real crises arise from the authorities' refusal to uphold the law and apply lawful, proportionate measures.
In this narrative, Maidan is stripped of context and turned into a universal scare tactic. It is used not to understand the Ukrainian experience but to suppress any dissent within Russia. This claim does not explain reality — it justifies premeditated repressive decisions.
How It Is Marketed
Under the slogan of "preventing a Maidan," Russia systematically dismantles basic constitutional guarantees. Any form of peaceful dissent is labeled a threat to stability, while state violence is presented as "necessary prevention."
This justifies direct violations of the Russian Constitution: freedom of expression (Art. 29), freedom of peaceful assembly (Art. 31), prohibition of censorship, and arbitrary restrictions on rights. Internationally, this constitutes systematic breaches of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, especially Articles 19 and 21 (ICCPR).
The "Maidan" argument acts as a license for expanding police, National Guard, and FSB powers, criminalizing speech, and imposing preventive penalties for intentions rather than actual offenses.
What Actually Happened at Maidan
The factual account of Maidan has been documented by international observers. OSCE reports (ODIHR, 2014), Amnesty International (Facts about Maidan), and Human Rights Watch (Violence Against Protesters) agree: the escalation of violence was caused by security forces' actions.
Beatings of students on November 30, 2013, illegal detentions, unnecessary use of special equipment, and later, the use of firearms against protesters were key triggers for radicalization. These events are documented in the investigation archives of the Heavenly Hundred (Investigation Archives).
State violence, not freedom of assembly, destroyed public order. This is a crucial point deliberately concealed by Russian propaganda.
The Core Contradiction
According to the logic of propaganda, increasing repressions should lead to stability. Real data shows the opposite:
- The number of political prisoners in Russia rose from several dozen in the early 2010s to over 680 in 2024 (Memorial data);
- Criminal cases for single pickets, posters, and online posts did not eliminate protests but pushed them into more extreme and dangerous forms;
- Each new wave of repression increases social frustration, emigration, and loss of trust in institutions.
Repressions do not remove the root causes of discontent. They temporarily suppress symptoms while accumulating systemic crises.
How It Is Amplified
The propaganda machine uses visual intimidation: archival footage of fire, smoke, and clashes is presented out of context as the "inevitable result of freedom." The sequence of events and international observers' conclusions are completely ignored.
OSCE reports explicitly state that the use of force by Ukrainian security forces preceded mass unrest. Russian media deliberately conceal this fact because it undermines the central fear myth.
Purpose
This narrative normalizes state violence against its own citizens. It turns law enforcement into an instrument of political control and casts any dissent as a threat to national security.
Under the guise of "preventing a Maidan," torture, arbitrary detention, fabricated cases, and censorship are justified. This is not maintaining order — it is systematically replacing law with fear.
The Real Picture
International law is clear: freedom of peaceful assembly is a fundamental right, and restrictions are permissible only in exceptional and strictly justified cases. Russia systematically violates these standards.
The European Court of Human Rights in Lashmankin and Others v. Russia (2017) explicitly highlighted a structural problem — arbitrary bans on demonstrations and lack of effective remedies (ECHR decision). These violations do not prevent crises but institutionalize conflict between the state and society.
Conclusion
The myth "otherwise there will be a Maidan" is not a warning but a post hoc justification for repressions. It exists not to protect society but to protect the authorities from society.
Historical and legal evidence shows that chaos arises where the state refuses to uphold its own laws and international obligations. Repressions do not prevent crises — they make them inevitable.
Main Sources and Materials
The analysis is based on:
- OSCE: Report on Human Rights Violations in Ukraine (2014)
- Amnesty International: Facts about Maidan
- Human Rights Watch: Violence Against Protesters
- Heavenly Hundred Investigation Archives
- Memorial: List of Political Prisoners in Russia
- ECHR — Lashmankin and Others v. Russia
- International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights
About the Authors
This article was curated and verified by a team of experts in international law, human rights, and geopolitical analysis. Contributors have 15+ years of experience in research, legal documentation, and educational content development.
Methodology
The content on this site is compiled and verified by experts in international law, human rights, and geopolitical research. Sources include official legal documents, national and international legislation, resolutions of the UN, reports from international organizations, and verified open-source evidence. Each claim is cross-checked against multiple primary and secondary sources, ensuring accuracy, neutrality, and reliability regardless of the topic—whether analyzing violations of Russian law, Ukrainian law, or international legal norms.
Expert Statement
The authors affirm that the information presented reflects established legal interpretations and documented facts. Analyses are grounded in international law principles and widely recognized geopolitical assessments. References to official documents and reports are provided to ensure transparency and trustworthiness.
Last modified date: 25/11/2025